We surveyed 11 oddsmakers to come up with a consensus list of which NFL QBs are worth the most points against the spread in 2024.
If you’ve ever bet on the NFL, it’s likely that you’ve been in a situation where the backup quarterback played a big role in whether you won or lost a wager.
Perhaps the starting QB was questionable during the week but ended up being a late scratch. Maybe the opposing team’s starter got injured in the second quarter and you wondered about the value of the backup QB. Was the live number not reflecting the backup’s true talent level? Was it overestimating him?
In the NFL, only an injury to a starting QB is going to significantly move the point spread – with the rare exceptions for a few skill players like Travis Kelce, Justin Jefferson or Tyreek Hill. I did an article last year asking oddsmakers to rank the most valuable players, and Kelce was the most valuable non-QB against the spread (ATS) at 1.83 points.
Knowing the point-spread value of a starting NFL quarterback compared to his backup can be a huge edge for bettors, both during the week leading up to kickoff and for in-game wagering.
So, how much is a starting QB worth ATS relative to his backup?
It’s a nuanced answer, and reliant on many factors, including:
- The original spread and how close it is to a key number (3,4,6,7,10, etc.)
- The starting QB’s overall talent level
- The quality of the backup QB
- Where the game is being played (home/road/neutral)
- The uniqueness of the QB to the success of the offensive scheme
- The strength of the offensive coordinator
- The overall strength of the team
I first commissioned this article as an editor at another site back in 2018, and my former colleague Doug Kezirian asked one oddsmaker for his opinion on what all 32 starting QBs were worth to the spread if the starter and backup were playing at home against a league-average team. Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was No. 1, worth a full eight points more than DeShone Kizer. And Baltimore Ravens QB Joe Flacco was worth 4.5 points more than rookie Lamar Jackson. Times have changed just a bit.
Last year, I repeated the exercise, and Patrick Mahomes was No. 1, worth roughly 7.5 points ATS. Josh Allen and Joe Burrow (6.75) were tied for second.
This year, I went even bigger, speaking to 11 oddsmakers from 10 different sportsbooks across the country and asked for the difference in the point spread if the starter and backup were playing at home against a league-average team, and both players were fully healthy. I then took those 11 different values for each NFL team starter-backup pairing, averaged them together and ranked the players accordingly.
Here is how many points every starting NFL QB is worth against the spread compared to their backups. I’ve broken the list down in into four distinct tiers:
The elite
1. Patrick Mahomes (7.51 points ATS)
2. Josh Allen (6.80)
3. Lamar Jackson (6.78)
4. Justin Herbert (6.35)
5. Jordan Love (6.04)
There is a clear No. 1 and everyone else in the NFL right now, and Mahomes is “Him” as the kids say. Now a three-time Super Bowl champion, he won with an inferior set of skill-position players and won road games in the playoffs for the first time in last year’s postseason. Carson Wentz being Kansas City’s backup QB isn’t going to hurt this ranking, either. But regardless of backup QB, oddsmakers were unanimous that Mahomes was the NFL’s best QB and most valuable player to the point spread.
“He’s the No. 1 quarterback in the league and I don’t think there is a real weakness in his game,” one oddsmaker said. “They modified the offense last year, and I don’t think it will be the same offense as five years ago, but they should be able to spread the ball around.”
Another oddsmaker agreed: “Mahomes is the best QB in the league and the biggest difference-maker between starter and backup. A touchdown is maybe a bit high, but again, it’s Mahomes.”
It was a fairly narrow range of opinions on Mahomes as well, as the lowest rating any of the 11 oddsmakers had for him was 6.5 points better ATS than Wentz, and seven oddsmakers had him exactly a touchdown more valuable.
Josh Allen was tied for second with Joe Burrow in this exercise last year at 6.75 points ATS, and his terrific play (combined with Burrow’s injuries) likely contributed to him edging 2023 NFL MVP Lamar Jackson for the No. 2 spot.
“Josh Allen was No. 1 in combined rushing and passing yards last season and has been top four in the past four seasons,” one oddsmaker who had Allen ranked a point more than Jackson told me. “Allen’s teams have a worse winning percentage without Allen than the Ravens do without Jackson. I slightly lean Allen to being more valuable.”
Justin Herbert continues to be respected by oddsmakers, as he again was ranked the fourth-most valuable QB against the spread by oddsmakers. But not all oddsmakers were as high on him.
“I’m a big Justin Herbert fan, and Easton Stick didn’t look impressive at all,” one oddsmaker noted. “I’m maybe a little lower this year because of the coaching change and Jim Harbaugh is going to run the ball and not put as much weight on Herbert throwing downfield. I think Herbert may be worth just a little over a field goal [more than] Stick.”
One of the biggest risers from last season to this season was Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love, who was ranked 21st last year (2.5 points ATS); now he’s sixth, after a torrid second half of the season and nearly leading the Packers to the NFC Championship Game.
“I’m higher on Love than 95% of the industry, probably,” an oddsmaker texted me. “I was extremely excited when Green Bay drafted him. In that system, he’s taking the same footsteps as Aaron Rodgers (sitting behind Rodgers, as Rodgers sat behind Brett Favre). The hype might be a bit high on him this year, but Green Bay has a great chance of making the playoffs again. [Backup QB Sean] Clifford doesn’t do much for me, it’s a big drop-off. I have Love third-highest, tied with Jared Goff, in terms of point-spread difference.”
Goff was close to the No. 5 spot, but a few oddsmakers weren’t quite sold on his value, especially with the offensive support system in Detroit.
“I’m high on Goff this season for counting stats and a potential MVP ticket, but for this exercise, he doesn’t warrant the QB ATS value that others do,” an oddsmaker told me. “I’m irrationally high on Hendon Hooker and think it was a blessing in disguise for him to sit for a year. He’ll be ready to run an offense at a very high level if he has to play. The Lions have the No. 1 offensive line and Ben Johnson is probably the best offensive coordinator in the game, if not top three. I’m not a fan of Clifford. He has almost no NFL experience, and his teams significantly underperformed versus expectations at Penn State. I don’t think he’d elevate that offense in any capacity. I think Love is much more valuable to that team than Goff.”
Or, as another oddsmaker succinctly put it, “The sky’s the ceiling for Jordan Love.”
Established starters
6. Jared Goff (5.87)
7. Joe Burrow (5.76)
8. Jalen Hurts (5.40)
9. Dak Prescott (5.18)
10. C.J. Stroud (5.12)
11. Aaron Rodgers (5.07)
12. Brock Purdy (4.69)
13. Travor Lawrence (4.53)
14. Tua Tagovailoa (4.48)
15. Kyler Murray (4.05)
For the second consecutive year, there were a ton of opinions on Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, whose value ranged from 3.5 to 7 points of value to the spread amongst the 11 bookmakers polled.
“I really like Hurts this year and [the] Eagles are probably my Super Bowl pick right now, but that Matt Canada offense wasn’t QB-friendly for him,” an oddsmaker said. “If Kenny Pickett is a starter under Kellen Moore with a Top-5 offensive line and those weapons, I don’t think there would be as big a drop-off as people think.”
There’s never a shortage of opinions on Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, and one oddsmaker had an interesting NBA comparison when I asked him about Dallas’ signal-caller.
“He’s kind of like James Harden in the NBA,” one oddsmaker joked. “Really good regular season and counting stats, but he’s not able to overcome adversity when times get tough. At this point, there’s too many examples that his ability to elevate those around him isn’t there. He’s played with elite O-line, receivers and tight ends, so I think he’ll put up great stats, but I’m hard-pressed to believe that he’ll win more games in the postseason this year.”
C.J. Stroud was the other notable riser from last year, when he was ranked 29th in the NFL, just 0.25 points better than backup Davis Mills to start the season. Stroud’s value jumped five full points against the spread, as many oddsmakers were impressed with his command of an offense that was decimated up front and at wide receiver by injuries. But Stroud still continued to flourish and put up the best statistical season we’ve ever seen from a rookie QB.
“Stroud has shown he can do it at both levels,” one oddsmaker opined. “He played extremely well in some of the biggest games at Ohio State, his rookie year was one of the best we’ve seen and this Texans offense is just getting better. They give him a running game with Joe Mixon, and get Stefon Diggs on the outside. Their offensive line had a ton of injuries last year as well. Stroud is legitimately an MVP candidate.”
Another oddsmaker was impressed with Stroud, but warned that – like Love – defensive coordinators have now had an offseason to study film on him.
“Stroud had an unbelievable rookie year,” an oddsmaker said. “There’s always a chance of possible regression going into Year 2, teams have a great amount of tape on him and are going to make adjustments on how they defended him from last year. I think 4.5 is the fair number right now and there’s a potential to go even higher on ATS difference, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there is some slight regression for him.”
And what NFL would be complete without discussing the 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers, who fell from 5th last year to 11th. Oddsmakers expressed concern over Rodgers’ injury, his age and the decreased point-spread value because Tyrod Taylor is a slightly better backup than Zach Wilson.
“It’s really tough to know what to expect from Rodgers coming back from that injury and getting up there in age,” said one oddsmaker who was lower than consensus on Rodgers. “I think a field-goal difference between him and Taylor is fair in my opinion, especially [with] how well the Jets played without Rodgers last year.”
The other starters
17. Derek Carr (3.96)
18. Kirk Cousins (3.92)
19. Baker Mayfield (3.85)
20. Matthew Stafford (3.33)
21. Deshaun Watson (3.11)
22. Geno Smith (2.62)
23. Daniel Jones (1.84)
24. Gardner Minshew (1.77)
25. Jacoby Brissett (1.60)
26. Anthony Richardson (1.44)
27. Will Levis (1.39)
29. Sam Darnold (1.18)
30. Bryce Young (1.09)
32. Russell Wilson (0.83)
There are plenty of interesting quarterbacks to note in this group, including oddsmakers being a little lower on Matthew Stafford than I would have anticipated.
“I think Jimmy Garoppolo is one of the best, if not the best, backup QBs in the NFL,” an oddsmaker explained. “For a game or two, if Stafford is hurt, Sean McVay could scheme up some stuff to play to his strengths.”
It was about as rough a first season as it gets for 2023 No. 1 overall draft pick Bryce Young in Carolina, as the Panthers went 1-15. The good news for Young is that Pittsburgh’s Russell Wilson was still ranked worse than him; the bad news is that five oddsmakers had him and Andy Dalton as interchangeable against the point spread. Some oddsmakers were cautiously optimistic, though.
“Young obviously played terribly last year, but I think there will be improvement with a new coaching regime,” an oddsmaker said. “Their wide receiver corps was awful. The offense is going to be a little more modernized, a little more friendly for him. He has the talent to improve. Dalton is a veteran and is comfortable with the backup role. Heading into the season, I don’t think there is much of a difference between the two. Young is too talented to not play well, I think the new coaching staff will help that for sure.”
The rookie starters
16. Caleb Williams (3.98)
28. Jayden Daniels (1.23)
31. Bo Nix (0.84)
Expectations are high for No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams from fans and oddsmakers; a weak backup QB in Tyson Bagent also helped lead to his high ranking.
“He’s in a great situation in Chicago and has everything around him right now to succeed,” an oddsmaker said.
Another oddsmaker noted, “I don’t really see why Caleb Williams wouldn’t do well. He’s in about as good a position as you can be in as a No. 1 overall QB.”
A third oddsmaker was even higher on Williams, even while admitting there would be plenty of volatility and likely turnover: “I think that Caleb will be around a league-average starter at the beginning of year and be above average by end of the year once he adjusts to the NFL game.”
Several oddsmakers also were high on Jayden Daniels, but noted the lower expectations for Washington and the better backup QB in Marcus Mariota.
“Daniels’ frame is a little concerning, but he can impact the game with his legs. Washington can be a surprise playoff team. I think of [Robert Griffin] III with his rookie year in Washington. Obviously, Caleb has a stronger supporting cast around him. I think these guys finish the 2024 season close to the same stats-wise and value-wise.”
As for Nix, one oddsmaker summed it up succinctly, “I don’t have a lot of confidence in him.”