Twenty-four hours after an underwhelming Europa League schedule was confirmed for Manchester United, they had to face up the prospect of another season threatening to unravel. This wasn’t how it was supposed to be.
While Manchester City look forward to fixtures against Inter, Juventus and PSG and Liverpool face AC Milan and Real Madrid, United’s most enticing European fixtures are a battle of Britain against Rangers and a Jose Mourinho reunion in Istanbul.
A season of traipsing around Europe’s minor leagues was to be an inconvenience for Ineos on their path to restoring United’s lustre. On Sunday night, as Sir Jim Ratcliffe put his head in his hands in the directors’ box, they saw just how distant the gap remains to the very best the Premier League has to offer.
When Ratcliffe’s £1.25bn investment into United was confirmed last February, he mentioned qualification for the Champions League for this season as a short-term target, while focusing on the long-term aim of “getting Manchester United to where we would like to get it.”
Missing out on the Champions League places by eight points wasn’t considered enough to dispense with the services of Erik ten Hag, who saved his job by winning the FA Cup final. A cup alone won’t keep him in that gig this season.
As United battle with financial fair play rules, not to mention a dwindling reputation as a European superpower, they can’t afford another season outside of Europe’s elite. This season might only be three games old, but it already looks like City, Liverpool and Arsenal are the best three teams in the league.
That would leave one more slot available in the top four. If Ineos were to peruse the bookies odds this morning, they would have to scroll past Chelsea, Newcastle, Tottenham and Aston Villa before finding the club they now run. Opta have United’s top four chances at 10.78%, marginally ahead of Villa on 9.9% but well behind Newcastle, Chelsea and Tottenham.
This is what the statisticians and the boffins now make of Manchester United. Take the emotion out of it and it screams mediocrity. Maybe Ratcliffe wishes he could rewind to the early weeks of June and strip the emotion away. Everyone knows Ineos planned to sack Ten Hag before that FA Cup final triumph.
That one game changed everything and it only strengthened Ten Hag’s relationship with the United fans. But four competitive games later the questions have returned and the one market United are vying for favouritism in is the next manager to leave their club. It’s a two-horse race between Sean Dyche and Ten Hag.
It always felt predictable that Ten Hag’s future would crop up as an issue again from the moment in the Ibiza sunshine that an Ineos delegation told him he was safe. At that point, a contract extension was planned. Instead, two weeks later, they just took the option already written into his existing deal.
On confirming it, sporting director Dan Ashworth laid out the priority moving forward. “This group of players and staff have already shown they are capable of competing and winning at the top level; now we need to do it more consistently,” he said.
It was a leap of faith based on little more than hoping a proper football structure and an improved injury record would elicit improvement. It’s not a surprise that it hasn’t done, at least so far.
That consistency still eludes United and they have now lost 16 of their last 41 Premier League games. They have conceded three goals at Old Trafford seven times in a year. It’s a miserable record.
So what do Ineos do now? When they opted to stick with Ten Hag they must have run through a few possible scenarios. A slow start to the season was always a possibility, especially after a summer disrupted by international tournaments. The look on the faces of Ratcliffe, Sir Dave Brailsford, Omar Berrada, Ashworth and Jason Wilcox late in the game on Sunday spoke volumes.
If they already feel like they erred in sticking with Ten Hag, then the brave decision would be to make a change now. Nobody expects that to happen, however. Instead, the Dutchman will get another run at it while his predecessors curse their luck for not having had the generosity of time that Ineos are granting.
An upturn in results is now essential. United play seven times before the October international break and they need to find some form and start moving up the table. Ratcliffe will be desperate for Ten Hag to succeed, not only because it benefits the man now making the decisions at Old Trafford, but it because avoids the embarrassment of having to get rid of a manager you came so close to removing in June.
Ineos went as far as speaking to other candidates at that time, most notably Thomas Tuchel, who would surely feature highly in their thoughts if the job came up again. For now, Tuchel remains unemployed, but any hint that that could change could be an issue.
There will certainly be a limit to how long Ratcliffe is willing to give it. Under the Glazers, United would often sack a manager when qualifying for the Champions League became a mathematical impossibility. Ineos can’t possibly leave it that long so the clock is already ticking.