It has been five years since Manchester United spent money on a permanent signing in the January transfer window, and the new football structure at Old Trafford will aim to keep the chequebook closed again this winter.
Bruno Fernandes was the last mid-season transfer at Old Trafford in January 2020, and if you were making a case for business in that window, you would certainly have Fernandes front and centre of your proposal. He is United’s best signing of the last decade and has proved outstanding value for money at £47m.
Since then, United have done all their major business in the summer, as the most well-run clubs always aim to do. The winter window in Erik ten Hag’s first season was notable for some stop-gap loan deals, in Jack Butland, Marcel Sabitzer and Wout Weghorst.
Ralf Rangnick was told he couldn’t sign an attacker in January 2022, and last season Ten Hag was unable to sign a forward because the club couldn’t afford it. United will hope to get by again without investment in January 2025.
Whether that is achievable depends on how the next two and a half months go. United play at least 17 games between now and the January window opening, a tally that could rise to 18 if they progress in the Carabao Cup, and they need to find some considerable improvement to be back on track at the turn of the year.
Ten Hag’s side are currently 14th in the Premier League. They play 12 league fixtures before January, including trips to Manchester City and Arsenal, and need to start closing the gap to the top four and putting themselves back in the frame for Champions League qualification.
Fail to do that and it might be that a new head coach is in place by January. Ten Hag only narrowly survived last week’s executive committee meeting and he remains under intense pressure. At this stage it would be something of a surprise if he lasted as long as January.
If 2025 dawns with either a new man in charge or United needing to make up considerable ground in the league, then sporting director Dan Ashworth, technical director Jason Wilcox and interim director of recruitment Christopher Vivell might have to consider signings in the window.
To do that, they will need to sell. The summer was another £200m+ window and they have spent more than £600m in three years under Ten Hag. This is a club that has posted losses in five successive years totalling more than £370m. Ineos are trying to rein that in and it’s safe to say a January splurge isn’t in the business plan.
If that changes, then someone will have to go. Options are thin on the ground, however, with a summer clear-out reshaping Ten Hag’s squad. The three likeliest options are probably Harry Maguire, Casemiro, and Antony.
United could activate the one-year extension in Maguire’s contract with a view to selling the 31-year-old in January. He has been a reliable performer for a year, but with Victor Lindelof likely to leave on a free transfer in 2025, Maguire is the only sellable defender in the squad.
Casemiro’s days look numbered after his disastrous 45 minutes against Liverpool, but he has played more than expected recently, with Manuel Ugarte taking time to settle in. If Ugarte has made that spot his own by January, then Casemiro could be sold, although it is worth remembering that the expected market for him in the summer didn’t materialise.
Antony is another who looks surplus to requirements. He has played 27 minutes in the Premier League this season and only started in the rout against Barnsley in the Carabao Cup. The Brazilian has failed to make any real impact at the club. With Amad, Alejandro Garnacho, and Marcus Rashford all performing, United could try to sell Antony this winter. However, they would be making a substantial loss on the £85.5m they paid Ajax for him in the summer of 2022.
Ashworth and the team will hope it doesn’t come to this and that, on the pitch, United can stage enough of a recovery to make January a non-event. But on the evidence of the first 11 games, that might well be wishful thinking.